Access your phone’s notifications, calls, apps, photos & texts on your PC. The paper empirically shows that my firm’s data is superior to “Operating Income After Depreciation” and “Income Before Special Items” from Compustat, owned by S&P Global (SPGI). Acquisitions completed at these prices would be accretive to Salesforce’s shareholders. See all adjustments to Dropbox’s valuation here. I optimistically assume that Salesforce can grow Dropbox’s revenue and NOPAT without spending any working capital or fixed assets beyond the original purchase price. Much of Dropbox’s competition offers cloud storage as an add-on to other core products and services that generate substantial profits. One of the most notable adjustments was $20 million in operating leases. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. Should the firm have its first earnings miss, investors could get spooked and send shares lower. He was a 5-yr member of FASB's Investors Advisory Committee. Despite years of rapid revenue growth and reaching profitability, the future for this cloud-based storage provider is murky at best. Figure 4: Dropbox & Competitors’ Cloud-Based Storage Plans, Most of Dropbox’s Peers Are More Profitable Too. For instance, the firm adds back stock-based compensation, a non-cash, but very real expense that dilutes shareholder value, to its calculation of FCF. Its share price DBX is down ~8% while the S&P 500 is up 24% over the last year or so. See our client testimonials. Back up and sync docs, photos, videos, and other files to cloud storage and access them from any device, no matter where you are. Dropbox, Inc. write a review. Dropbox controls 21% of the cloud storage market, according to Datanyze, putting it in second place behind Google Drive (34%) and ahead of OneDrive (12%). Figure 12 shows the implied values for DBX assuming Salesforce wants to achieve an ROIC on the acquisition that equals its WACC of 6%. And with advanced sharing features, it’s easy to share docs and send files—large or small—to family, friends, and co-workers. Access and share your photos, docs, and more from anywhere for free. Instead, due to the proliferation of noise traders, the focus tends toward technical trading trends while high-quality fundamental research is overlooked. Back UP your Photos & Videos Automatically!♻️. Dropbox is at a disadvantage when it comes to competing for its competitors’ users. Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology. Additionally, Dropbox has not been nearly as efficient at converting free users to paid users. Dropbox (DBX) is a pioneer of cloud storage. Inferior Offering at Higher Cost Limits Growth. Though Dropbox's worth hit $12 billion in the fall of 2018, as of July 26, 2020, Dropbox has a market cap of approximately $8.82 billion. Figure 2: Dropbox’s YoY Change in Paying Users Since 2016, Dropbox Has to Steal Users From Deeply Integrated Solution Providers. By comparison, Google Cloud’s revenue increased 43% YoY in 2Q20, and Microsoft grew its commercial cloud revenue by 39% YoY over the same period. When I close the accounting loopholes, I find that over the past three years, Dropbox generated a cumulative $329 million in true FCF and that FCF is rapidly declining. THE CLOUD STORAGE WARS: APPLE LEADS WITH 27% MARKET SHARE. Over half of Americans online have never used cloud storage service Valuation: I made $2.1 billion of adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $90 million. Dropbox market share in the Datanyze Universe. 1800 Owens St While Dropbox profits are trending higher, I do not believe the firm will be able to meet the expectations for future profit growth implied by its share price, given the competitive obstacles outlined above. Over the TTM, the firm’s true FCF is -$40 million compared to reported FCF of $400 million. Investors with fiduciary responsibilities should consider the deteriorating fundamentals, weak competitive position, and the unrealistic user growth implied by the current valuation. Fiduciaries should avoid this week’s Danger Zone pick: Dropbox Inc. (DBX). Below, I quantify the high acquisition hopes that are priced into the stock. This adjustment represented 1% of reported net assets. Despite focusing on workflow optimization and adding product features such as HelloSign, Passwords, and Spaces, Dropbox has been unable to reverse its declining growth rates. Back up and sync docs, photos, videos, and other files to cloud storage and access them from any device, no matter where you are. Figure 13 shows the implied values for DBX assuming Salesforce wants to achieve an ROIC on the acquisition that equals 8% and is greater than its WACC. Dropbox is popular with businesses of all sizes because it is one of the best tools for transferring large files. Balance Sheet: I made $1.4 billion of adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net decrease of $853 million. More broadly, Axler worries that Dropbox has saturated its cloud-storage market. Dropbox’s invested capital turns, a measure of balance sheet efficiency, ranks third out of the six companies listed in Figure 5. Dropbox differentiated itself from Box by focusing on mass-market cloud storage while Box concentrated on helping businesses. Software Solution. Here’s a quick summary for noise traders when analyzing DBX: Executive Compensation Plan Is Not Creating Shareholder Value, In addition to base salaries, Dropbox’s executives earn cash bonuses and long-term equity incentive compensation. The chart shows the Global Cloud Storage Market Share in 2017. However, upon closer look, Dropbox’s free cash flow fails to reflect the true economics of the business. A new report by Unified API integration leader CloudRail shows that Dropbox leads the consumer cloud storage market with 63.8%, ahead of Google Drive, OneDrive and Box of all users choosing their service.. A newer version of this report is available: Cloud Storage Report 2017 CloudRail, a leader in API integration management solutions for app developers, released a new report analyzing … New Constructs provides unrivaled insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private & public businesses. $8.82 billion Dropbox's valuation, as of July 2020 Free Online Storage, Dubox Cloud Storage: Cloud Backup & Data backup, Dubox: Cloud Storage to Backup, Sync&File upload, Dropbox Passwords - Secure Password Manager, Cookies help us deliver our services. On The Basis Of Product, The Private Cloud Storage Market Is Primarily Split Into. Google Drive is the next in line with 27.27% market share. True FCF. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. For those who don’t need a lot of storage, Dropbox Basic is a free plan with 2 GB of storage. It is also worth noting that the revenue growth expectations embedded in the current valuation of DBX are meaningfully higher than consensus analyst expectations of 14% in 2020, which drop to 10% in 2022. Sharing. The stock will also likely sink should any of its competitors get more aggressive and offer more cloud storage at even lower prices so that Dropbox’s value proposition gets only weaker. While many cloud storage systems focus on collaborating on smaller files, Dropbox makes it easy for businesses to share large documents, or video files that might not be shareable on other cloud storage systems. The combination of the firm’s slowing growth rate and higher expectations make a future beat more difficult. Hardware Solution Box ranks fifth with a 5% share. Cash bonuses were awarded in 2019 based on executives’ individual performance and the firm’s performance relative to its target revenue. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. You can see all the adjustments made to Dropbox’s balance sheet here. Meanwhile, Box (BOX), a direct competitor, had ~13 million paying users out of just 71 million registered users, or 18%, as of 2Q20. No other competitors claimed more than 4% of the field. Figure 8: Dropbox’s Revenue and Core Earnings Since 2016, Dropbox Is Priced to Reach 44 Million Paying Users or 30% of Amazon Prime Members. Dropbox hits 17% of market share with no associated content ecosystem. Dropbox should link executive compensation with improving ROIC, which is directly correlated with creating shareholder value, so shareholders’ interests are properly aligned with executives’. The report also revealed that cloud storage is overwhelmingly dominated by music, with about 90 percent of Apple, Amazon and Google cloud users storing music in the cloud. 2. Cloud storage isn’t just about uploading your files. As featured in the HBS & MIT Sloan paper, Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence, our superior data drives uniquely comprehensive and independent debt and equity investment ratings, valuation models and research tools. Dropbox stated in its 2Q20 earnings call that it is on a trajectory to achieve its long-term free cash flow target of $1 billion by 2024. Because Dropbox started as a small company, freemium provided a way for more people to try the product and thus enabled people to experience the superior services, therefore expanded their market share. At the end of January, the consensus estimate for Dropbox’s 2020 earnings was $0.57/share. Cloud Storage Market Share by Region, 2017. Growing registered and paying users is a serious uphill battle for Dropbox since most of its potential paying users are already customers of firms that provide the same service as Dropbox along with many other important services. Jump forward to today, and the 2020 consensus estimate has risen to $0.77/share, despite underwhelming user growth during the shift to work-from-home. There are limits on how much Salesforce should pay for Dropbox to earn a proper return, given the NOPAT or free cash flows being acquired. This paper compares our analytics on a mega cap company to other major providers. Figure 4 shows that Dropbox offers neither the most storage nor the cheapest storage (excluding free tiers). To justify its current price of $19/share, Dropbox must: See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. See what HBS & MIT Sloan professors say in the paper: “…the NC dataset provides a novel opportunity to study the properties of non-operating items disclosed in 10-Ks, and to examine the extent to which the market impounds their implications.” – page 19, “Trading strategies that exploit cross-sectional differences in firms’ transitory earnings produce abnormal returns of 7-to-10% per year.” – page 1. For example, Google’s G Suite (which includes Google Drive) has 2 billion active users and Apple has 1.5 billion active devices (which include iCloud). These days, fewer investors pay attention to fundamentals and the red flags buried in financial filings. With Dropbox as your backup solution, it’s easy to save your files to the cloud instead of using an external hard drive, flash drive, or any other remote storage device. Even in this best-case growth scenario, the implied value is far below Dropbox’s current price. Dropbox lets anyone upload and transfer files to the cloud, and share them with anyone. This report helps investors of all types see just how extreme the risk in DBX is based on: While Dropbox has grown revenue from $845 million in 2016 to $1.8 billion TTM, the firm’s year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth rate has fallen from 40% to 18%. Figure 11 compares the firm’s implied future NOPAT in this scenario to its historical NOPAT. Over the past three years, Dropbox states it generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow (FCF). The cost of cloud storage depends on the amount of space you actually need. Figure 10: Dropbox’s Implied 2027 Average Paying Users vs. The leading region in the Cloud Storage Industry was North America with a 42% cloud storage market share in 2017, followed by Europe with 28% cloud storage market share, Asia-Pacific with 25%, and the rest of the world with 5%. While this stock has outperformed as a short, it could fall much further. So users of those apps always hav… Furthermore, each of these users may find Apple’s new Apple One subscription (which bundles iCloud, Music, TV, Arcade, Fitness, and News) more appealing than a third-party service. With COVID-19-induced disruptions forcing most businesses to adapt their operations to be more remote friendly, Dropbox was in prime position to gain market share. 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By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies, Dropbox: Cloud Storage to Backup, Sync, File Share, By purchasing this item, you are transacting with Google Payments and agreeing to the Google Payments. 20% of iCloud customers were paying users in 2018, the last time Apple shared that stat. Top Leading Companies of Global Private Cloud Storage Market are Amazon Cloud Drive, Ubuntu One, Apple iCloud, Dropbox, Google Drive, Box, Microsoft SkyDrive, MediaFire, SpiderOak, Mega and others. By dividing the implied revenue in 2027 of $5.6 billion by the firm’s 2Q20 ARPU of $126, I arrive at ~44 million implied paying users in 2027. Dropbox’s net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) margin of 2% is well below the market-cap-weighted peer group average margin of 21%. Dropbox’s return on invested capital (ROIC) only tops Box, and at less than 4%, is well below the peer group’s market-cap-weighted average of 48%. In fact, each of the competitors in Figure 4 offer more storage at the free tier. Figure 1: Dropbox’s YoY Revenue Growth Since 2016. ... Dropbox is a file hosting service that offers cloud storage, file synchronization, personal cloud, and client software. Google Drive is a file storage and synchronization service developed by Google. If Dropbox cannot outgrow the competition in such a favorable environment, will it ever? Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dropbox’s 10-Qs and 10-K: Income Statement: I made $67 million of adjustments, with a net effect of removing $9 million in non-operating expenses (1% of revenue). 44 million paying users also translates to 2.5% of the global cloud storage market share. This WFH Solution Provider Saw Market Share Decline During COVID. The market also expects Dropbox to lose more market share given that the global cloud storage market is expected to grow much faster (by 22% compounded annually from 2020 to 2025). Dropbox lets anyone upload and transfer files to the cloud, and share them with anyone. With COVID-19-induced disruptions forcing most businesses to adapt their operations to be more remote friendly, Dropbox was in prime position to gain market share. I think it is difficult to make a straight-faced argument that Dropbox can maintain that level of market share with a more expensive and less integrated product. Combining human expertise with NLP/ML/AI technologies (featured by Harvard Business School), we shine a light in the dark corners (e.g. 1.2 Market Analysis by Personal Cloud Storage, Public Cloud Storage, Private Cloud Storage, Hybrid Cloud Storage 1.3 Market Analysis by Enterprise, Government, Personal 1.4 Market Analysis by North America, Europe, China, Japan, Rest of the World 1.5 Market Dynamics 1.5.1 Market Opportunities 1.5.2 Market Risk 1.5.3 Market Driving Force. Dropbox Business starts at 2TB of storage for the Standard plan, but Advanced and Enterprise plans receive unlimited storage in the cloud. Top Competitors Websites And with advanced sharing features, it’s easy to share docs and send files—large or small—to family, friends, and co-workers. Dropbox saw only a 16% YoY revenue increase in 2Q20 and a 17% YoY increase in 1H20. One of our most used categories is Cloud Storage. Over the past three years the firm has incurred $1.1 billion in stock-based compensation expense. In this scenario, Dropbox grows NOPAT from -$43 million in 2019 to $163 million in 2027, and the stock is worth just $7/share – a 63% downside. This scenario represents the minimum level of performance required not to destroy value. In other words, DBX’s current valuation implies the company will grow its paying user base to equal 30% of Amazon Prime members and 22% of Microsoft Office 365 subscribers today. Box ranks fifth with a 5% share. For this analysis, I chose Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) as a potential acquirer of Dropbox since Dropbox already integrates with Salesforce’s cloud-based platform and such vertical integration would give Salesforce greater in-house services and access to Dropbox’s over 600 million registered users. Competitors, DBX Implied User Growth Justification Scenario 1, Dropbox Has Significant Downside With More Realistic User Growth. He is author of the Chapter “Modern Tools for Valuation” in The Valuation Handbook (Wiley Finance 2010). Figures 12 and 13 show what I think Salesforce should pay for Dropbox to ensure it does not destroy shareholder value. Figure 12: Implied Acquisition Prices for Value-Neutral Deal. Figure 13: Implied Acquisition Prices to Create Value. From Dropbox’s proxy statement, the compensation committee notes “annual revenue continued to be the best indicator of our successful execution of our annual operating plan.”. Figure 6: AOEPU as a Percent of ARPU Since 2016. For instance, Apple offers all of its customers 5 GB of free space through iCloud. Consensus estimates show that the market expects the firm’s revenue growth rate to decline from 14% in 2020 to just 10% in 2022. Dropbox not only has to convince customers not to use Apple’s convenient and competitively-priced service, but it also must convince them that Dropbox’s service is meaningfully better. MEGA is Cloud Storage with Powerful Always-On Privacy. Dropbox has generated negative economic earnings in each of the past four years. David is CEO of New Constructs (www.newconstructs.com). Microsoft one drive is at 12.12%. Dropbox controls 21% of the cloud storage market, according to Datanyze, putting it in second place behind Google Drive (34%) and ahead of OneDrive (12%). Even if Dropbox can grow revenue by 14% compounded annually for five years and achieve a 4% NOPAT margin, the firm is worth less than $19/share. In the first scenario, I use 14% revenue growth in year one and 11% in years two through five (vs. consensus estimates of 14% in 2020 and 11% in 2021). The other players boasting a double-digit usage share were Dropbox with 17%, Amazon Cloud Drive with 15% and Google Drive with 10%. Leading media outlets regularly feature our research. I first warned about Dropbox prior to its IPO in March 2018, and again in September 2018 and August 2019. While I chose Salesforce, analysts can use just about any company to do the same analysis. 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Of revenue, NOPAT and FCF without increasing working capital or fixed assets implied by current.
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